Armenia’s pro-West government wins election despite Russian pressure
Armenia's pro-West government wins election despite Russian pressure
Armenia s pro West government wins - Armenia's pro-West government has retained its majority in the recent general election, signaling continued public support for its Western-oriented policies even as Russian influence looms large. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's ruling party, Civil Contract, secured 49.8% of the vote, outperforming the Strong Armenia Alliance (23.2%) and the Armenia Alliance (9.9%). This outcome underscores the resilience of the pro-West government amid economic strain and geopolitical tensions, particularly following Armenia's military defeat in the 2023 conflict with Azerbaijan. The election was viewed as a crucial test of the government's commitment to reducing reliance on Russia and strengthening ties with the European Union and other Western allies.
Prime Minister Pashinyan, who has governed since 2018, celebrated the results as a mandate for his pro-Western agenda, emphasizing peace and regional prosperity. “The Armenian people have chosen to move forward with cooperation and stability,” he stated, highlighting his administration’s efforts to diversify the economy and align with international standards. While Western nations like France and the EU expressed confidence in the pro-West government’s leadership, Russia’s foreign ministry criticized the electoral process, accusing Western entities of interference. Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed
“unprecedented pressure” was exerted on opposition parties, suggesting that the pro-West government’s victory was not entirely organic.
She also pointed to a perceived polarization in Armenian society, with some citizens wary of Western integration.
Domestic support wanes amid geopolitical tensions
Despite the pro-West government’s electoral success, its popularity has eroded over time. Polls indicate that Pashinyan’s approval rating has dropped from 54% in 2021 to approximately 30% currently, reflecting growing frustration with economic challenges and the ongoing conflict with Azerbaijan. The election saw 19 parties compete, but only a handful achieved enough votes to enter the National Assembly. Among these, the conservative Prosperous Armenia party, led by businessman Gagik Tsarukyan, placed fourth with 4% of the vote, aligning with other pro-Russian factions such as the Strong Armenia Alliance, under Samvel Karapetyan, and the Armenia Alliance, linked to former President Robert Kocharyan.
As the pro-West government continues its push for Western alignment, Russia has maintained economic leverage over Armenia. Last month, President Vladimir Putin highlighted potential consequences of Armenia’s closer ties with the EU, noting that European gas prices had surpassed $600 per 1,000 cubic metres, compared to Russia’s $177.50. In the lead-up to the election, Moscow also imposed export restrictions on Armenian goods, such as flowers and brandy, adding to the pressure on Pashinyan’s administration. These actions underscore Russia’s strategic interest in shaping Armenia’s political landscape to its advantage.
Strategic moves and lingering divisions
The pro-West government has made several key moves to solidify its position. One of its main initiatives is accelerating Armenia’s accession to the European Union, a goal that has been a central part of its foreign policy. Pashinyan also prioritized peace talks with Azerbaijan, mediated by the United States, which led to the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This effort earned him support from former President Donald Trump, who has consistently advocated for closer Armenian-EU relations. However, the pro-West government’s agenda has not been without controversy, particularly regarding its handling of the post-conflict settlements.
Public opinion remains divided over the pro-West government’s decisions. A recent survey revealed that 44% of Armenians support the peace deal with Azerbaijan, while 41% oppose it, citing concerns about territorial concessions and the treatment of former Nagorno-Karabakh leaders imprisoned in Azerbaijan. In Yerevan, the election results were met with mixed reactions. While some citizens expressed cautious optimism, others remained critical of Pashinyan’s leadership. Lala, a 70-year-old gardener in the city’s central Republic Square, said
“I am excited. He is the one who is taking us to peace,”
highlighting the pro-West government’s ability to inspire hope despite internal challenges.
Implications for Armenia's future alignment
The pro-West government’s victory has significant implications for Armenia’s foreign policy trajectory. With a strong mandate, Pashinyan is now better positioned to push for deeper integration with the EU, including reforms to align with European standards and reduce dependence on Russian energy and trade. However, the government’s ability to implement these changes may be constrained by economic pressures and the need to maintain stability in a politically polarized society. The pro-West government’s focus on Western partnerships has also led to increased diplomatic engagement, with a recent EU summit hosted in Yerevan marking a symbolic step toward closer ties.
Meanwhile, the pro-West government faces the challenge of balancing its Western aspirations with Russian influence. While it has made strides in reducing military reliance on Moscow, the country remains economically intertwined with Russia, particularly through energy exports. Analysts note that the pro-West government must navigate this complex relationship carefully to avoid alienating key stakeholders. The election results suggest that, for now, the public is willing to support the pro-West government’s vision, even as it grapples with the realities of geopolitical competition and economic hardship.