El Niño under way and threatens weather extremes, scientists say
El Niño Active, Scientists Warn of Unprecedented Weather Challenges
El Niño under way and threatens - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed that the El Niño climate phenomenon is underway in the tropical Pacific, marking a shift in global weather patterns. This event, which naturally raises global temperatures, is now in full motion, with oceanic temperatures rising significantly over recent months.
While the onset of El Niño was anticipated by experts, the confidence in its strength has surprised researchers. Computer models suggest it could develop into a "super" El Niño, possibly among the most intense on record. If this materializes, the effects may extend beyond 2027, impacting ecosystems, food systems, and economies globally.
El Niño's power is gauged by the extent to which sea surface temperatures in a critical Pacific region surpass average levels. A strong event is defined as exceeding 1.5°C, while a very strong one reaches 2°C or more. NOAA's June forecast indicated a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño, potentially rivaling historical extremes since 1950. More recent models from US and European institutions predict temperatures could climb over 3°C above average by year-end.
Climate Change Intensifies El Niño's Impact
With the planet already experiencing elevated temperatures due to human-driven climate change, the combination could lead to record-breaking heat. "The current El Niño is building on a substantial amount of existing global warming," noted Prof Adam Scaife, who leads long-term climate predictions at the UK Met Office. "This could result in unprecedented regional temperatures, amplified by ongoing climate trends."
2024, the hottest year on record, saw a moderate El Niño contribute to its warmth. Even after a La Niña cooling effect in 2025, the year still ranked third globally, surpassing the heat of the 2016 super El Niño. The upcoming years may see further intensification, potentially pushing 2027 over the 1.5°C warming threshold relative to late-19th-century levels.
Regional Impacts and Concerns
El Niño typically disrupts weather patterns in the tropics, causing heavy rainfall in northern Peru and southern Ecuador, with potential spills into East Africa, Central Asia, and the southern US. Conversely, areas like Australia, Indonesia, and northern South America face heightened drought and wildfire risks, threatening agriculture and food security.
Its influence also extends to hurricane activity in the Atlantic, where El Niño is expected to reduce storm frequency. However, this could mean less rainfall for Central America, exacerbating water shortages. "For millions, an El Niño declaration is more than a forecast—it’s a warning," said Mohamed Adow of Power Shift Africa. "Failed rains, dying crops, and soaring food prices could push families to the brink, especially in regions already struggling with recent floods and droughts."
Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA) corroborates NOAA’s assessment, stating El Niño conditions are already present. The phenomenon is likely to persist into the next year, deepening its influence on global climate systems.