Friendship or leverage: Why is Xi Jinping going to North Korea?

Friendship or leverage: Why is Xi Jinping going to North Korea?

Friendship or leverage - North Korea, a neighbor China cannot fully manage but is reluctant to see falter, remains a key player in Beijing’s geopolitical strategy. Despite historical ties rooted in the Korean War—often described as a "bond forged in blood"—recent years have seen a shift in the dynamics between the two nations. Mistrust has emerged, prompting China to reengage with Pyongyang to secure influence while avoiding entanglements in the country’s nuclear pursuits.

Xi Jinping’s recent trip to the North is likely driven by strategic considerations rather than mere camaraderie. Seoul speculates Beijing may aim to position itself as a mediator between North Korea and the U.S., yet analysts suggest deeper motives. Western diplomats note China’s growing unease with the strengthening alliance between Pyongyang and Moscow, which has intensified since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Following a meeting with Vladimir Putin, Xi seeks to balance power in the region. The relationship with North Korea has cooled, evidenced by the lack of major diplomatic events. The 75th anniversary of their ties in October 2024 was marked with minimal public fanfare, and China’s ambassador missed Pyongyang’s founding celebrations the prior month. Senior-level exchanges have been sparse, contrasting with the warming ties between North Korea and Russia.

Strategic Divergence and Military Cooperation

North Korea’s military collaboration with Russia, including a mutual defense pact signed during Putin’s 2024 visit, has raised concerns in Beijing. About 2,300 North Korean soldiers reportedly died fighting for Russia in Ukraine, according to a BBC investigation. Pyongyang has also been accused of sending ammunition to Moscow in exchange for oil and aid, a move that has worried Washington and its allies, while subtly unsettling China.

"China wants to ensure its interests vis-à-vis North Korea are protected at a time of rapid convergence between Moscow and Pyongyang," says Ankit Panda, a nuclear policy specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

China’s sole formal defense treaty is with North Korea, making a scenario where Russia dominates Pyongyang’s foreign policy particularly worrisome. A more assertive Kim Jong Un could diminish Beijing’s leverage, prompting China to take steps to reassert its influence.

Earlier this year, passenger train services between Beijing and Pyongyang resumed after a six-year break, signaling a deliberate effort by Beijing to draw North Korea back into its sphere. China’s exports to the country reached $2.3bn in 2023, the highest in six years, underscoring economic stakes. Analysts suggest this move is part of a calculated strategy to maintain control over Pyongyang’s decisions.

Mixed Feelings Toward the North-Kim Partnership

Lee Seong-hyon, a visiting scholar at the Harvard University Asia Center, highlights Beijing’s "mixed feelings" about the North-Kim alliance. While it distracts Washington and complicates U.S. strategies, it could also trigger a stronger trilateral response from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea.

China has not endorsed North Korea’s nuclear program outright, fearing increased U.S. involvement in the region. However, it avoids direct confrontation, as seen in their 2022 joint veto of a U.N. resolution targeting Pyongyang’s missile tests. "This would only push North Korea more into the arms of Putin," warns Victor Cha, head of the foreign policy department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

For Kim Jong Un, the choice to align with China remains pragmatic. Balancing aid and influence, he navigates a complex landscape where both allies and adversaries shape his path. The visit by Xi Jinping underscores China’s desire to maintain stability on its border, even as it contends with shifting alliances in the region.