German far-right set for big win in eastern state, projections show
Far-Right AfD Poised to Seize State Power in Saxony-Anhalt for First Time Since 1945
Ninoda.com – Exit-poll projections from the Saxony-Anhalt state election have placed the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) at roughly 44 percent of the vote, a figure that would hand the far-right party its largest territorial mandate yet. The conservative CDU, long the anchor of eastern German politics, trails badly behind at an estimated 17.8 percent. Whether the AfD can translate that share into an actual governing majority remains uncertain, but party leaders are already framing the result as a licence to rule.
A Watershed No One Saw Coming at That Scale
No far-right party has governed a German Land since the end of World War Two. Should the AfD cross the threshold needed to form a state government in Magdeburg, it would acquire authority over policing, regional schooling, and cultural policy — levers of power that shape daily life for the state's 2.1 million residents. Commentators and opposition figures alike described the projected outcome as a rupture with decades of postwar political norms.
The result also exceeded what earlier opinion polls had indicated, catching many observers off guard. AfD state chairman Ulrich Siegmund, who has become the party's most visible face in eastern Germany, called the projections "sensational" and declared the party wanted to begin governing without delay. Joint national co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla were visibly elated as the numbers appeared on screens at the party's election-night headquarters in Magdeburg, where a crowd of supporters erupted into cheers and, shortly after, began singing the national anthem.
"We have made history in this state," Siegmund told the assembled crowd.
The Uncertain Arithmetic of Coalition-Building
The AfD's leaders will not know definitively whether they hold a workable majority until the smaller parties' results are confirmed. The pivotal variable is the BSW, a populist left-wing formation that must clear the five-percent threshold to enter the 83-seat Landtag. If BSW falls short, the AfD's path to a governing majority sharpens considerably. If it clears the bar, the AfD is currently tracking toward approximately 39 seats — a strong position but one that may still require negotiation.
Most established parties continue to observe a so-called Brandmauer, or "firewall," a self-imposed rule barring coalition talks with the AfD. In Saxony-Anhalt, however, the BSW has signalled willingness to cooperate with the AfD on select policy issues should it gain parliamentary representation, a move that breaks with the broader convention.
Reactions Across the Political Spectrum
Sven Schulze, the CDU's candidate in the state, conceded defeat and acknowledged the difficulty of the campaign that preceded the vote.
"This was an extremely tough and intensive election campaign," Schulze said, adding that his party would have to come to terms with the result.
In Berlin, the centre-left SPD, which shares the federal government with the CDU under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, reacted with alarm. National SPD leader Lars Klingbeil labelled the outcome "truly dramatic" and a "signal to Berlin," insisting the party would hear that signal and respond accordingly.
What State-Level Power Actually Means
Germany's sixteen Länder each control distinct competencies. A state government shapes police organisation, curricula and school administration, and cultural funding. It does not, however, command immigration policy or foreign affairs, which remain federal matters. That distinction matters because the AfD's most controversial platform item — a programme it calls "remigration," widely interpreted as mass deportation of migrants, though the party insists it targets only criminals and undocumented residents — would be largely beyond a single Land's jurisdiction. Still, control over state policing and education gives a government considerable room to shape the lived experience of residents.
The party has also singled out the Bauhaus design school, closed by the Nazis after their 1933 seizure of power, for particular criticism — a stance that has drawn sharp rebuke from cultural institutions and historians.
Domestic Intelligence and the Extremism Label
Saxony-Anhalt's AfD chapter is formally assessed by Germany's domestic intelligence service as "right-wing extremist," a designation Siegmund has publicly rejected. The classification carries no automatic legal consequence but shapes how other parties and institutions interact with the group. The AfD itself is openly pro-Russia and anti-migration, positions that have dominated the campaign narrative in the eastern states, where the party's electoral heartland is concentrated.
The party also won the neighbouring Thuringia state election in 2024 but failed to assemble enough seats to form a government there, leaving that Land in a prolonged caretaker limbo. Saxony-Anhalt's higher turnout — estimated at 78 percent — and larger projected margin give the AfD a materially stronger position than it held in Thuringia.
Voices from the Street and the Community
In Magdeburg, supporters celebrated Siegmund's projected success. One man, who gave his name only as Ollie, told reporters:
"This man gives us what no-one else can give. No matter what government, they all just promise things to get better. This is a party for the working people. It is the alternative for Germany."
Elsewhere, the result provoked unease among minority communities. Charlotte Knobloch, the 93-year-old Holocaust survivor and veteran head of the Jewish community in Munich and Bavaria, said the news frightened her.
"On days like this I find it hard to recognise my homeland any more," she said, urging mainstream parties not to stand by and allow what she called "this decline."
National Implications
The AfD currently leads national opinion polls, sitting ahead of both the ruling CDU and the SPD. A confirmed state-level victory in Saxony-Anhalt would deepen that trajectory and force questions about whether the Brandmauer convention can survive contact with a party that commands nearly half the electorate in an eastern Land. For Berlin's coalition partners, the political arithmetic of governing nationally while a rival ideology governs regionally will become a recurring test of institutional resilience.
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