What one country’s experiment says about attempts to boost birth rates

What One Nation's Initiative Reveals About Fertility Campaigns

What one country s experiment says - In the eastern Hungarian city of Debrecen, Barbara Elek anxiously checks her inbox, awaiting confirmation of her pregnancy following a third IVF attempt. Her husband Levi, a chef, and she, a social worker, had secured a £25,000 interest-free loan under a government program requiring couples to commit to two children. If the pregnancy doesn't materialize by November 1, they risk repaying up to £8,600 in penalties. "Failure would mean personal heartbreak and financial strain," Barbara admits, highlighting the precarious balance between hope and obligation.

Financial Incentives and Policy Shifts

Hungary’s previous administration launched sweeping measures to encourage childbirth, including tax breaks, mortgages subsidies, and loans for families. These perks were tied to a promise to have children, with married heterosexual couples in the formal workforce qualifying. The program aimed to counteract a fertility rate below 2.1—necessary to maintain population stability—alongside high emigration and low immigration rates.

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, re-elected in 2010, framed the initiative as a cultural shift. "We prioritize Hungarian children over numerical targets," he argued, contrasting with Western reliance on immigration. By 2020, the policy appeared to work: the fertility rate rose from 1.25 to 1.59. Yet by 2025, it had dipped to 1.31, raising questions about its long-term efficacy.

Early Gains and Unintended Consequences

While some view the policies as a partial success, experts like Tomas Sobotka of the Vienna Institute of Demography call them a "clear failure" in reversing demographic decline. "The rate fell despite the program, showing limited impact," he notes. Fruzsina Skrabski of the pro-family NGO Three Princes, Three Princesses, however, argues that the policies prevented a steeper drop, citing a reduction of "hundreds of thousands of children" without intervention.

For Maté and Agi Gorondy, a Budapest suburb couple with five young children, the program’s benefits are tangible. They attribute their large family to maternity pay, baby loans, and home renovation subsidies. "Four- or five-child families are now common here," Maté observes, though Agi’s tax exemption for having more than two kids underscores the policy’s direct financial appeal.

Broader European Trends and Policy Lessons

Across Europe, fertility rates have lingered below replacement levels since the 1980s, with over half of all nations facing similar challenges. Hungary’s experiment, however, offers a case study in incentives: while it spurred a temporary rise in births, the decline afterward suggests that financial rewards may not sustain long-term growth. "The policies worked in the short term but failed to reverse the trend," Skrabski acknowledges, emphasizing that "more children were born, just not enough to offset the decline."

As the nation grapples with its results, the debate continues. Did the program create a meaningful shift, or was its effect temporary? The answer may shape how other countries approach similar efforts to revive birth rates.