Hundreds of criminals start leaving prison under new early release scheme

Early prison releases begin as capacity pressures intensify

Ninoda.com – Hundreds of prisoners in England and Wales are beginning to leave custody earlier than planned under a new release programme designed to prevent prisons from running out of space. The first group of about 700 people was scheduled for release on Thursday, forming the opening stage of a scheme expected to affect around 4,500 prisoners between October and June 2027.

The policy has been introduced against a backdrop of severe crowding. Ministry of Justice figures showed that 87,499 people were in prison as of Monday, with the estate operating at 98.2% of its capacity. Ministers argue that without action, the system could soon be unable to accept newly arrested people who need to be detained.

There will be 10 release dates in total. The initial stages apply to people serving sentences of up to 19 months, while later groups will include prisoners serving fixed-term sentences exceeding 12 years. The final wave is planned for June 2027.

How the release rules change sentence timing

The Sentencing Act changes the point at which some prisoners are released from custody. People previously expected to serve 40% or 50% of a sentence in prison will instead leave after completing one third. Those who had been due to remain in prison for two thirds of their term will be released after half.

The projected number of eligible prisoners was initially about 6,000. That estimate was later reduced to roughly 4,500 after Prime Minister Andy Burnham ordered a review of the scheme’s terms. The revised exclusions cover offences including every form of manslaughter, grooming offences, and causing or permitting the death of a child.

Indeterminate sentence prisoners are not covered by the policy. Such sentences are used for the gravest crimes, including murder, and release depends on a parole board deciding that the individual can safely return to the community.

The current programme follows an earlier early-release initiative introduced by the Conservatives, which resulted in more than 10,000 prisoners being released ahead of schedule from October 2023 to September 2024. The continuing pressure on prison places has made the issue a central test of how the criminal justice system balances public protection, punishment and practical capacity.

Government says the choices are difficult

Treasury minister James Murray acknowledged the strength of public concern, saying the government faced no easy answer to the prison overcrowding crisis.

“I know the level of concern and maybe anger will be intense, and it’s worth me making clear that this is not a situation where there is any good solution – there’s just a series of very difficult choices we’ve got to take.”

He said the government had inherited a prison service close to a breaking point. In his view, failing to release some prisoners early could lead to a situation in which people arrested now could not be placed behind bars because no cells were available.

“I can’t guarantee exactly what will happen, but I can tell people we have done everything we can to reduce the amount of people being released as far possible.”

Ministers say people released under the scheme will remain under supervision, with restrictions intended to limit their movements and an expanded use of electronic tags. Early release does not mean a sentence disappears: the individual remains subject to conditions in the community and can face consequences for breaching them.

Victims and probation concerns

Victims’ groups have expressed alarm that some offenders may be released before victims believe the risk has been properly reduced. London Victims’ Commissioner Andrea Simon said the revised list of exclusions still leaves people whose release could be deeply frightening for those affected by their crimes.

“[There is] no real reason to believe that an even shorter spell in prison will have dealt with the risk that their offender poses.”

Simon also questioned the protection offered by electronic monitoring. Tags can show where a person is, but they cannot physically prevent an offence from happening or automatically remove the risks created by intimidation, contact or other harmful behaviour.

“[It] will tell you where someone is but it can’t stop them from doing something they shouldn’t be doing.”

The Chief Inspector of Probation, Martin Jones, has raised separate concerns about whether the monitoring system is ready for the additional workload. He said the electronic monitoring regime had not developed quickly enough and warned that unresolved problems could give the public an unwarranted sense of safety.

The question extends beyond tagging. Probation staff will need to oversee more people in the community, while newly released prisoners may require stable accommodation, access to services and clear supervision plans. Critics have asked whether the Probation Service has enough resources to manage thousands of extra cases safely.

Released prisoners describe mixed reactions

Some of those leaving custody have welcomed the opportunity to return to the community. Michael Bogle, a former bus driver released from Wandsworth Prison in London, described conditions inside as “awful” and expressed support for the scheme.

“Tagging is better than prison.”

Others released in the first wave said they were worried about the limited support available once outside. One man said he did not learn he would be released until Thursday morning, highlighting how abruptly the transition can occur for people leaving custody.

The programme leaves policymakers with a difficult task: relieve immediate pressure on prisons while ensuring that supervision is credible, victims are informed and protected, and released prisoners have enough support to reduce the likelihood of further offending. The releases will continue in stages for more than a year and a half, making the performance of probation, electronic monitoring and community services central to the scheme’s outcome.