Burnham’s Victory Against Reform: A Triumph for Sir John Curtice
Sir John Curtice – Andy Burnham’s recent by-election win in Makerfield has been hailed as a personal triumph by Sir John Curtice, a prominent political analyst and professor at Strathclyde University. Despite Labour’s broader struggles in recent elections, where its vote share dropped by 14 points in Runcorn and 25 points in Gorton & Denton, Burnham’s success in Makerfield stands out as a testament to his individual appeal and strategic campaigning. The constituency had previously seen Reform lead Labour by 20 points in local elections, yet Burnham not only preserved Labour’s 45% vote share from 2024 but also increased it by 10 points, signaling a reversal of momentum in a key battleground.
The results of the Makerfield by-election have sparked renewed interest in Burnham’s political trajectory, with Sir John Curtice emphasizing the significance of his victory. While Labour’s national polling remains stagnant at 19%, Burnham’s performance suggests that local factors, such as tactical voting and targeted messaging, can still influence outcomes. In contrast, Scottish by-elections on the same day revealed mixed trends, with Labour’s vote share falling sharply in Aberdeen South and Arbroath & Broughty Ferry by 19 and 18 points respectively, highlighting regional divides in the party’s support.
Tactical Voting and Local Dynamics
Analysts credit Burnham’s win to a combination of re-engaging Labour voters and a strategic shift in the political landscape. According to Sir John Curtice, nearly 80% of Labour supporters who had backed the party in 2024 returned to the polls, with four out of five of them opting for Burnham. This contrasts with the national trend, where only slightly over half of Labour’s 2024 voters are likely to return. The decline in support for Reform, the Conservatives, and the Greens—collectively capturing just 3% of the vote—also played a crucial role in Burnham’s success.
“Burnham’s victory in Makerfield was not just a win for Labour, but a clear indication of how personal campaigns can override national trends,” noted Sir John Curtice. “The 0.4% Liberal Democrats’ result was their worst by-election performance since the post-war era, while the Conservatives’ 2.2% only marginally improved from their previous low of 1.9% in Gorton and Denton.”
Furthermore, the by-election underscored the importance of local issues in shaping voter behavior. Burnham’s focus on key concerns such as public services, job creation, and community engagement resonated with constituents, allowing him to bridge gaps in Labour’s national performance. Sir John Curtice highlighted that the electorate’s decision to support Burnham was influenced by his ability to align with their priorities, even as the party’s overall standing remained vulnerable.
Emerging Political Forces and Strategic Implications
The Makerfield result also served as a warning for Reform, the party that had previously dominated the constituency. With Burnham’s win, Reform’s ambitions to capitalize on Brexit-driven discontent were momentarily stalled, though the party still managed to secure a notable share of the vote. Meanwhile, the rise of Restore Britain, founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, introduced a new layer of competition. Although the party only captured 7% of the vote, its presence may have siphoned off potential Reform supporters, presenting a challenge for future campaigns.
While Burnham’s victory was a local win, its implications extend beyond the constituency. Sir John Curtice pointed out that the outcome could pressure Sir Keir Starmer to defend Labour’s leadership strategy. Burnham’s success, despite the party’s national struggles, demonstrates the power of individual leadership in navigating complex political environments. This could also influence the broader discourse on how to maintain Labour’s cohesion and appeal to voters who have drifted away in recent years.
Additionally, the by-elections highlighted the growing influence of the Conservatives in certain regions, particularly in Scotland. In Aberdeen South, their vote share surged by 25 points, marking a record gain and their first win in the country since 1967. This victory was interpreted as a referendum on net zero policies, with voters expressing dissatisfaction over both UK and Scottish government initiatives. Sir John Curtice noted that such results could spark debates about the party’s energy strategy and its impact on public opinion.
Burnham’s win in Makerfield, under the scrutiny of Sir John Curtice, has become a pivotal moment in the current electoral landscape. It not only reaffirmed Labour’s ability to secure victories in key areas but also demonstrated how tactical voting and personal charisma can counterbalance broader party challenges. As the political season progresses, Burnham’s success may serve as a blueprint for other Labour leaders seeking to rebuild momentum in an increasingly fragmented electorate.
