Ten years on, Brexit’s economic impact is becoming clearer
Ten years on Brexit s economic – Ten years after the UK’s decision to leave the EU, the economic impact of Brexit is becoming increasingly evident. The departure from the European Union has reshaped trade dynamics, supply chains, and market access for businesses across the nation. As the nation grapples with the long-term consequences of this historic shift, a closer look at specific industries and trade data reveals how the effects of Brexit are manifesting over time. The case of a small Bristol-based startup, Eskimo, illustrates these changes, offering a microcosm of the broader economic challenges the UK faces in its post-Brexit landscape.
A Case Study of a Small Business
Eskimo, a startup specializing in energy-efficient electric radiators, initially aimed to leverage its proximity to the EU to thrive in European markets. Products developed by local academics were designed for a region increasingly committed to sustainable technologies, with plans to distribute goods across Europe via the Channel Tunnel. However, as the Brexit process unfolded, the company found itself struggling with the “Long Brexit effect”—a term coined by its founder, Phil Ward, to describe the cumulative impact of regulatory changes, administrative burdens, and evolving trade agreements. Despite a 2020 trade deal under Boris Johnson that eliminated tariffs on exports to the EU, the company’s share of EU exports dropped from 40% in 2020 to just 5% by 2025. This decline has forced Eskimo to rely on French agents for sales and abandon direct exports to European consumers, with a planned German expansion also facing setbacks.
“The Long Brexit effect has been a drag on our potential,” says Ward, highlighting how non-tariff barriers, such as compliance requirements and logistical delays, have significantly increased costs and reduced market reach. “Even without tariffs, the complexity of new trade rules has made it harder for us to compete.”
These challenges are not unique to Eskimo. Broader economic indicators reflect a similar pattern. According to the UK Trade Policy Observatory at Sussex University, the diversity of UK exports saw a sharp 26% decline by 2023, with specific categories experiencing an even steeper 53.8% drop. Aston University’s analysis of trade records further underscores this trend, revealing a 31.5% reduction in import volumes. These statistics highlight how Brexit has altered the flow of goods and services, creating a ripple effect across industries. For instance, the automotive sector, which heavily depends on just-in-time supply chains, has faced delays and higher costs, while the food and beverage industry has struggled with customs checks and increased paperwork.
Measuring the Long-Term Economic Effects
Analysts argue that Brexit’s economic impact is not just a temporary adjustment but a lasting shift in the UK’s trade relationships. However, quantifying this effect requires comparing actual outcomes with hypothetical scenarios. The past five years have been marked by global events that complicate such comparisons—namely, the pandemic, the Ukraine war, and the energy crisis triggered by Middle Eastern conflicts. While these factors have undoubtedly influenced economic performance, they have also made it difficult to isolate the precise role of Brexit in the downturn.
Despite this complexity, economists generally agree that Brexit has had a measurable impact on trade. Nick Bloom, a Stanford University professor and co-author of a major study analyzing Bank of England data, emphasizes that the UK’s exports to the EU have declined by 14% since 2019. The worst year for UK goods exports to the EU in this century, excluding the financial crisis, occurred in 2025, indicating a persistent challenge in maintaining pre-Brexit trade levels. Bloom also notes that while early predictions of a Great Depression-style slump were exaggerated, the cumulative effects of Brexit are now more apparent. “The experts were right. It was, if anything, worse than we thought, but it’s taken longer to get there,” he explains.
The shift in trade dynamics has also affected the UK’s overall economic growth. With fewer goods reaching EU markets and higher costs for imports, the nation’s trade balance has worsened. Additionally, the loss of access to the EU’s single market has led to increased reliance on trade agreements with other countries, such as the United States and Asia. While these deals have provided some relief, they have not fully compensated for the reduced trade with the EU. The result is a more fragmented global trade network, with the UK now navigating a complex web of bilateral agreements rather than the seamless integration of the EU’s market.
