Three Reasons Ships Are Not Going Through the Strait of Hormuz Yet
Three reasons ships are not going – Following the US-Iran agreement announced by President Donald Trump on Sunday, he urged global vessels to “start your engines” and resume oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. However, data from MarineTraffic’s tracking system reveals a stark contrast. Just seven ships have navigated the critical waterway since the deal, while as many as 580 remain anchored in the Gulf, awaiting a safe passage.
Strait Closure and Security Hurdles
Iran effectively sealed the Strait of Hormuz after US and Israeli strikes on 28 February. The waterway, responsible for transporting roughly 20% of global oil and gas, has since faced significant disruptions. Experts attribute the slow return of maritime traffic to three primary challenges: ongoing security threats, the presence of mines, and lingering toll requirements.
Ships Trapped in the Gulf
As of Tuesday, MarineTraffic’s data shows over 250 tankers and 330 cargo ships lingering in the Gulf. Analysis suggests that approximately 75% of these tankers are motionless, with many congregating near key oil export terminals in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. The total number of vessels may be even higher, as some ships are not broadcasting their positions and thus appear absent from the tracking records.
“The first noticeable shift in traffic would likely be an exodus of ships currently stalled in the Gulf,” remarked Naveen Das, a senior oil analyst at Kpler.
Despite Trump’s claim of “immediate removal” of the US naval blockade, the president clarified it would stay in effect until the Iran deal was finalized. Satellite imagery from 15 June shows four US warships stationed near the Gulf of Oman’s entrance, reinforcing the presence of the blockade. Meanwhile, Iran has been targeting vessels attempting to cross without permission, as reported by its semi-official Fars news agency.
Uncertainty and Risk Aversion
Following the deal’s announcement, ship operators, owners, and insurers are preparing to move their vessels out of the Gulf. Yet, hesitation persists. “A wait-and-see attitude remains dominant,” noted Michelle Wiese Bockman of Windward Maritime Intelligence, referencing Iran’s abrupt closure of the strait after declaring it open in early April. At that time, over 33 ships were forced to reverse course mid-journey, with several reporting attacks.
“What we’re observing is still a cautious approach. Few are willing to take the initial risk,” said Das.
Iran’s threat to deploy sea mines—floating objects that can be launched from its coastline—has further complicated matters. Both the Joint Maritime Information Center and Oman’s Maritime Security Centre have issued warnings about potential mine activity in the strait. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that Iran had mined large sections of Hormuz, highlighting the need for mine clearance to restore pre-war shipping levels.
“Clearing the strait of mines will take time, ranging from 30 days to six months,” stated Arsenio Dominguez, secretary general of the International Maritime Organization.
Experts also point to the southern route near Oman as a potential alternative, though its viability remains uncertain. Phillip Belcher from the International Association of Independent Tanker Owners emphasized that the lack of clarity about security conditions is a major concern for maritime operators.
