Thinking about the next heatwave? Prepare for more rain first
Thinking about the next heatwave Prepare – As the UK enters meteorological summer, the weather is taking a sudden turn. A recent heatwave, which broke records across western Europe in late May, has given way to cooler and wetter conditions. This shift is linked to the return of a stronger jet stream, which has displaced the high pressure system that previously dominated the region. The Met Office warns that this pattern is likely to persist for the coming week.
Heavy rain and strong winds are expected to intensify by Saturday, with a yellow wind alert issued for southern Britain. The warning, valid through the evening, raises concerns about potential disruptions to outdoor events, as trees are in full leaf and could be vulnerable to damage from gusts.
“The chance of a wet season [summer] are slighly higher than normal.”
By Sunday morning, rain is set to spread into Northern Ireland and western Scotland, moving eastward throughout the day. Southern regions will experience drier weather under a ridge of high pressure, allowing parts of the Midlands, East Anglia, and south-east England to remain relatively dry and enjoy warmer temperatures when the sun breaks through.
Meanwhile, the Met Office has released its three-month summer outlook, predicting a heightened probability of heatwaves and heat-related impacts from June to August. This follows the record-breaking heatwave of late spring, which saw temperatures in Kew Gardens, London, reach 35.1°C in May—surpassing the previous record of 32.8°C set in 1944. Yellow and amber heat health alerts were also activated for the first time this year.
Forecast Uncertainty and Drought Concerns
Despite the current wet spell, long-range models show divided predictions for summer rainfall. MeteoGroup suggests below-average precipitation, especially in England and Wales through June and July, while the Met Office indicates an average to wetter-than-normal season. This variability mirrors recent trends, such as the 2025 summer when the UK received 84% of average rainfall, yet northern and western areas were notably wetter than central and southern regions.
Water levels in English reservoirs dropped significantly in September 2025 after a dry spring and summer, leading to drought declarations across much of the country. The summer outlook now signals a potential return to warmer conditions, with the likelihood of a hotter-than-average season doubling compared to the 1991–2020 climate reference period. However, the exact impact of rainfall remains uncertain, with forecasts highlighting the complexity of weather patterns in a warming climate.
Heading into this summe…
